Great Breakdown

The following commentary is by Tim Hockemeyer, as posted on www.firejerryangelo.com Its a great article from a great site...check it out if you get a chance.....

Who really lost the Super Bowl? Why the Rons should have rings.Wednesday, February 07, 2007 For three days the media has been all over Rex Grossman. He has been called the worst QB in Super Bowl history. He has been handed the whole of the blame for a Super Bowl loss. It has been said that the Bears carried Grossman to the Super Bowl. It has been said that Grossman let his team down.Sure enough, Grossman's 3 turnovers, one returned for a TD did not help the Bears cause. But is the loss really all on Rex Grossman? Was he really responsible for 5 Colts scoring Drives? Did Peyton Manning really outperform Grossman by such a huge margin? And most importantly who really deserves the criticism for the embarrassing Super Loss?Let's break down the Bears performance by three categories. Offense, defense and special teams, analyze the performances, and try to get some answers.First let's break down offensive performances. Start with the much heralded differences in QB play:Grossman: 20 for 28 for 165 yards with 1 sack, 1 fumble lost, 2 INTs and 1 TD.Manning: 25 for 38 for 247 yards with 1 sack, 1 fumble lost, 1 INT, and 1 TD.Pretty similar numbers, at first glance. But an in-depth look shows that Grossman was 19 for 20 for 143 yards with 1 td on short to intermediate passing (passes under 15 yards), but 1 for 9 for 22 yards and 2 INTs when throwing the deep ball. Meanwhile Manning threw 24 for 33 for 194 yards short to intermediate, with no TDs or INTs, but was 1 for 5 for 53 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT throwing the long ball. Grossman outperformed Manning in the short passing game, and save for a breakdown in coverage that lead to the 53 yard Wayne touchdown, performed similarly bad in wet, inhospitable conditions when throwing the long ball. So why did Grossman throw twice the number of long passes, when Manning obviously figured out the folly? Because Ron Turner, consistent with what he has done all year, panicked and called plays taking excessive shots downfield, when they were unnecessary.As stated previously, Grossman outperformed the much vaunted Peyton Manning in the short passing game, completing 95% of his passes for 7.2 yards per pass, while Manning completed 73% of his passes for 5.9 yards per pass. During and after the game, the tagline was that the Colts receivers were gaining yards after catch that the Bears receivers were not. This is a bias view, based on a lack of peripheral information. The Colts played the Tampa Two most of the game, leaving them in a position to hit the receivers while their attention was directed at the ball, making tackling easier, and generally insuring minimal gain after the catch, much as the Bears have done all year long. On the other hand, Rivera had the Bears playing a bastardized Prevent Two most of the Game, leaving the safeties 15 to 17 yards back, and the corners and linebackers playing way off, allowing the Colts receivers time to catch and adjust for the tacklers, and thus allowing them to break more tackles and gain more yards. Even so, the Bears' short passing game was more effective than the Colts', gaining almost a yard and a half more per pass.Looking at these numbers, this must mean the Colts' running game outperformed the Bears', right? Wrong.The Colts averaged a respectable 4.7 yards per carry. But the Bears averaged an outstanding 6.5 yards per carry, and Thomas Jones averaged a juggernaut 7.5 yards per carry. But, unfortunately, Ron Turner did not understand what everyone else in football, and half of those who are little more than spectators, understood. Running the ball controls the clock and wins the game. Turner called just 17 runs compared to 29 passes, compared to the 41 runs and 39 passes called by Manning. Why is anyone's guess. The Bears averaged a 6.9 yard gain on the 37 run and short pass plays called, which resulted in 254 yards of offense, and only one incompletion with 2 fumbles, as well as the only offensive touchdown the Bears scored. So, with this kind of success, what happened? Simple. Ron Turner called 9 deep outs resulting in a sack, 2 INTs and one completion for 22 yards. Peyton Manning figured out early that the ball was getting away from him when he through deep, resulting in an INT, and a floating TD attempt out-of-bounds to Harrison. He abandoned the long ball in favor of the more reliable short passes. Ron Turner panicked, and never figured out that if the leagues most celebrated QB couldn't control the deep pass in that weather, maybe it was unwise to call normally low percentage passes in poor conditions with an inexperienced QB, especially when you are having success with the short game. But instead Turner decided he would win the game on the Big Play, or lose trying.Of the 14 Drives the Bears ran, 3 ended in scores, 2 in fumbles, 1 by the clock, 1 by turnover on downs (Grossman's only short incompletion/Clark drop) one three and out running series, and 6 ended by deep passes (2 by INT, 4 by incompletion). So the deep pass, which was never necessary, ended more drives than all other factors combined. And as the last two series (minus the deep INT) showed, the Bears could easily move the ball if they stuck to the short game.So why didn't Turner call more runs? Why didn't he call more short passes, and less long bombs? Because, as he has one all season when the Bears fall behind, he panicked, and tried to catch up quick, instead of catching up methodically. He didn't trust his own game plan, and threw the Ring away. The Colts should have an extra ring made for Mr. Ron Turner, the best defensive coordinator the Colts could have hoped for.****************************************Now, let's examine the defense. The Bear defense has taken its fair share of criticism since Mike Brown and Tommie Harris went down for the season, and rightly so. The Bears allowed just 9.8 points per game in the first 6 games, with both Brown and Harris in the line-up, but allowed 26.3 points per game in the last four with both on the injured reserve list. Losing two pro-bowl starters is enough to end the season for a lesser defense, but not for the Bears, whose depth might have allowed more points, but stepped up in the playoffs to allow just 14 points from the leagues #1 offense in the NFC championship game.The team's strength is its speed, and the implementation of that speed in the Bears' version of the Tampa Two offense, which is designed to reach receivers as they meet with he ball, and to outrun rushers and turn them inside towards the linebackers. The plan allows multiple defenders a chance to tackle, and strip the ball, leading the Bears to a league topping 44 turnovers forced. This physical style of defense got the Bears to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, it was not implemented outside of the redzone during the Super Bowl. Instead, Rivera lost his confidence in the defense that stopped the explosive Saints offense, and instead implemented a bastardized Prevent Two, dropping the safeties and corners deep, and leaving the short pass open all night, as well as leaving the defensive line out to dry in the running game. Rivera apparently decided that as long as he didn't give up the big play touchdowns, the offense would be able to keep up. Unfortunately, the gutless defensive scheme allowed the Colts to control the clock to the tune of nearly forty minutes, and allowed the Colts to convert 8 of 18 third downs and run 81 plays, devouring the clock. Even so, the Bears managed to hold the Colts to fewer yards per play than the Bears achieved, but the superior playcalling of Peyton Manning, coupled with the confused and dotterel offensive strategy, or lack there-of, of Ron Turner, managed to negate that.Add to this the repeating motif of a coordinated inability to adjust, and you get a loss. Rivera never increased pressure when it appeared that the few blitzes he ran were extremely effective. It appeared that Rivera believed too much of what he head from the media, that Manning will not succumb to a blitz package, and ignored the clear victories he was having with the blitz. Maybe he feared leaving less than 7 men in coverage, but the Bears secondary, even while handicapped by the foolish prevent scheme, were holding up better than the Colts secondary. In the end, Rivera's lack of confidence in the defense and scheme that made him a Super Bowl coach allowed the Colts to control the tempo of the game, as well as the clock, and score twice the points they should have. The Colts have another ring to award. Rivera's lack of confidence and poor game planning was the best thing that could have happened to the Colt's offense, and to Peyton Manning. ****************************************Finally, the Special Teams Unit:Gould was true to his name. He was the most accurate kicker in the Super bowl, and placed kickoffs well. Maynard was good as well, though he did shank one punt. Overall, though, his 45+ yards per kick was great.Hester is what he is, and was almost a liability after the opening kickoff. The Colts wouldn't kick too him, and thus he was nullified. But another record-breaking outing for him, none-the-less.Our field position sucked throughout the game, due to the poor offensive and defensive showings, and through no fault of the special teams unit. Again, the Rons' ineptitude forced another aspect of our game to fail.****************************************In the end, the Bears produced a season to be proud of, and our coordinators garnered much attention throughout the league, with Rivera possibly leaving for a job in Dallas. But I ask all of you. Were the coordinators really that good, or did they just ride the depth of talent on this team to a bigger paycheck and a Super Bowl ring? Wait, what do you mean they don't have a XLI ring? Indy needs to get right on that. These two should have shared the MVP award, and Peyton knows it.Tim Hockemeyer (T-Train)